As for intuition, you are right, in most cases, it works. And a very small percentage suggests otherwise. But I think this is the influence of the market itself. And all this, in my opinion, happens only because you need to learn to wait, especially if the project inspires confidence.
Waiting is necessary to see a good change because without waiting and being patient maybe the desired thing will not happen, even if it does happen someone will not be able to see it because he does not have the patience for it.