2 matches remaining for CONMEBOL zone i think Ecuador chance is very wide open to finish at top 4 because next match against Paraguay they possibly will win and for the last match indeed met strong team Argentina but considering this team is already qualified i think Argentina will play with their reserve players and draw results is enough for Ecuador in this match if they win against Paraguay however if they successfull to qualified then this could be 4th participation in world cup for Ecuador
I was just checking the odds:
Paraguay vs Ecuador 2.85/3.2/2.6
Uruguay vs Peru 1.7/3.7/5.45
Brazil vs Chile 1.44/4.5/8.0
Colombia vs Bolivia 1.18/7.0/19
So the Ecuador game seems completely open. Uruguay, Brazil and Colombia are expected to win.
If Uruguay and Colombia win then the situation for the Top4 is resolved but the fight for rank 5 will be very tight:
3. Ecuador 25(+x)
4. Uruguay 25
5. Peru 21
6. Colombia 20
7. Chile 19
Still Peru could secure the spot safely with a win in the last game vs Paraguay.