Armstrong wrote that China should bottom in 2020. And Japan will bottom in 2016 (will have its final implosion climax after 26 years of slow motion collapse).

I originally had a difficult time understanding why. Then I realized the reason is because the developing countries including China have a very low government share of GDP, because they don't have elaborate social welfare systems. See my comments on mpettis.com earlier in 2013, where I quoted the Heritage foundation ranking of countries by "Government Share of GDP".

Thus agreed developing world won't go into Mad Max, but they will have a hard down phase 2016 to 2020. We just have to hope that phase doesn't incite war. If we do go into widespread war 2018 or 2019ish, then at the end Asia will come out stronger similar to the USA after WW2.