So I'm wondering what kind of unprecedented economic sanction can be given to Russia if they continue to evade Ukraine.
There is a huge difference in what can and what is going to be done.
Most likely they will stick with technology access and investment and financial sanctions as well as probably a ban on some categories of goods for good.
Not much on paper but I will have to remind everyone, especially the guys that we're cheering how Huawei will piss on US sanctions that the king of 5G is selling his flagship smartphones without 5G as they are cut from that technology, and these are sanctions on a company, not a country.
I already know what people are going to say, but Russia will seek other trade partners, bla bla bla, they will replace the western trades with somebody else.
Yeah, they might try but the success will be limited, and it's simply because of the sizes of the economy, Russia if it will cut completely western trades they must import from other places, it's a 120 billion market which might sound tempting till you realize that just 3 countries like Thailand, Malezis and Brazil export that much to the US alone, not counting the EU. Will these risk throwing away 112 billion in exports in order to battle for a piece of a pie that is just 120 billion (for now as the ruble will most likely lose more value) in total? No.
So, with who are you going to trade, a block of countries with 28 trillion in GDP or a country with the economy size of the Netherlands alone?
The answer is pretty clear.
If the Russian petroleum products will stop to enter the remaining world then all of the businesses and vehicles will stop on roads because only Arabic petroleum cannot fulfill the needs of the world and the prices will multiple a dozen or more. There will be a shortage.
Use logic.
Russia needs to sell that oil or it will starve, they will try to sell it cheaper to partners that now buy Arabic oil like Asian countries, Europe will simply pay a bit more and Arabic countries will export the oil that was meant for Asia oil here. Oil is easy to transport, gas was and is the problem.
After sanctions there will be very less countries remain with Russia because other countries will not want to get the anger of USA and the Arabic countries are unable alone to fill the needs of the whole world. There is a full pipeline spread to the whole Europe for natural gas what will they do if that line is cut off. Russia do not rely alone on petroleum but they have more source of income.
Just remember a few years ago when Russia denied to supply the aluminum to the remaining world then there was a huge shortage created. The car manufacturers were very disturbed and the price of cars spiked.
That is another product which the world need.
I am in the favor of peace and want that Russia do not attack on Ukrain but that is just a reality of the fact about this discussion which I want to clear.