Odds are good by the looks of it, its just there are too many options. You got to be a good movie critic to learn who to out your money on. Oscar date is far yet so there maybe time to watch those movies or perhaps just go with whats been talked on celebrity forums and find out of their hints. 

Facebook will be a good source of info as there are good discussions of whos going to win which awards. From what I observe, the best director award also wins the best pictures, best actor and some. You agree?