I was struggling about whether I should merit your post because there are a few points that I disagree with .. even though  the overall intentions don't really seem bad.....

Surely, world events could really end up causing bitcoin to tank, yet assigning high probabilities to that - like ImThour seems to be doing.. or even showing a downward trajectory that has $20k as it's highpoint.. and asserting that it is inevitable for bitcoin to touch such line, just seems bonkers as fuck... .and sure, I don't mind accounting for outlandish (and outrageous) scenarios that could happen because we have seen those things happen in bitcoin  from time to time - nonetheless, we have to attempt to be somewhat realistic in our assignment of probabilities, so in that regard, we should not be treating 1% or 5% scenarios as if they were either highly likely or even if they have 50% odds.. because the reality of the matter is that they remain 1% or 5% scenarios and in our own mental and financial preparations we should be attempting to get as close as we can to approximating that rather than going into lala landia.....

Of course, we do not need to agree about how high of probabilities to assign, and surely you may well consider my assignment of 1% to 5% to be way the fuck too low, and you are thinking 20%-ish.. but you want to be safe and prepare as if it were 30%.. and sure, that is on you.. to prepare (psychologically/financially) in those kinds of ways, if you want to do that, but you better realize that many of us are going to consider you a bit looney if you (I am not necessarily referring to you specifically, modrobert) are coming into this thread and spouting certainties regarding such scenarios that even you could not reasonably to be even close to certain.. even if you have assigned way higher odds than others have assigned.