Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
oda.krell
on 27/03/2014, 20:21:50 UTC

The chart I posted consisted of 2 (or maybe 2.5) descending triangles. The question exactly how "arbitrary" they are is valid in principle, but if you look at it you will note the lines aren't drawn completely out of the blue: the major descending line has 6, maybe 7 points of contact with daily price candles, to a pretty remarkable degree of accuracy. You can certainly question the validity and staying power of that downtrend (since the December ATH), but trading on it sure turned out to be profitable in the past weeks. At some point that trendline *will* be broken, I'm sure, but so far it hasn't happened (with any kind of volume as well).

The lower lines that form the smaller  triangle run through the pretty well established support at ~520, slightly ascending perhaps. I said "2.5 triangles" because to me it looks like there are 2 levels of support running close to each other, but they aren't much apart, so many in this forum put the two lines together as one lower trendline. The trend lines of the smaller triangle are about to touch, and we either have to go up or down (breaking out towards the upside, or the downside), that's the trivially true part.

Now, today, we broke through the 520 support trend line (that marked the smaller triangle), although we're currently resting above it, which is not a bad sign. My chart was intended to raise the question: will we "break" the smaller triangle to the downside (i.e. go below 520, then 500), or rather: did we just break out to the downside, and will we perhaps, in the following weeks look for resistance/support in the larger triangle (that lasts into May 2014).

Here's the chart again:





Thanks for that explanation, and in essence you are suggesting that there will be a sort of force that causes BTC to gravitate towards these kinds of trendlines, despite a potential exponential growth curve... In other words, even if there were an exponential explosion of BTC prices, there would be a force pulling the price back down to the trendlines... unless the trendline were to shift upward or downward.. depending on if there is enough evidence to support drawing the line in a different way based on the number of connection points. 

I don't really have any problems with these kinds of analyses... b/c they seem to make sense.... even though you may NOT bet the farm on it.. but they could guide you absent other news.


More or less. I think the most basic idea behind analyzing trends is that there are several trends that govern the price function, shorter term as well as longer term trends, but not all of them are active at the same time. So the validity of a long-term exponential upwards trend isn't necessarily questioned because of a shorter term downtrend. The shorter term trends can still /influence/ our assumptions about the long term trends.