That seems far from exhaustive of possibilities.. but hey what do I know?

Another thing is that devil's in the details, so even if you may have broadly described something that could happen, the level of vague does not really capture how it plays out.. including various levels in which the conflict affects outside regions. or the extent to which outside regions are able to assist and what outside regions actually do in that direction...and how Russia might react to that.


I don't really disagree with anything that you are saying.. and your 10 BTC in 2026 does seem more than reasonable..  My chart from December 28 shows fuck you status getting below 10 BTC by late 2025.. so yeah.. maybe you have already attempted to be more conservative with trajectory expectations.

yet, I remain somewhat squirmy about my own chart because I do believe that we are going to have to taper our future projections of the 200-week moving average a wee bit in order to attempt to be realistic that exponential growth cannot really be an ongoing straight line.. and to attempt to capture that it has to start to taper.. even if we are tending to continue with a projection that is not far off of a round 75% per year ongoing UPpity in the 200-week moving average...

By the way, you likely already know that I do not have any problem with guys shaving off some dollars on the way up, and I have had my own formula for years regarding worse case scenarios regarding how much to be able to feel comfortable to shave off and to still be making ongoing profits in BTC.. and mostly rolling over profits.  100 BTC is such a good number to work with, so it is possible that I am going to be stuck with that number for a while, even if guys are going to be on both side of that number.. it is nice and round.

So anyhow, clearly having 100BTC into fuck you status can start to show us how we can work that number to our advantage in terms of better understanding how much BTC we can attempt to shave off if we are starting to want to spend within our fuck you status.

Once you get to fuck you status, even if it is entry-level, you should be able to more comfortably start to shave off value, and there are several components, but let's just take the proposition that every time the BTC price goes up $1k, if you have at least $100 BTC, then the value of your portfolio goes up $100k... so I have frequently asserted that if you have a goal to continue to roll over profits, then the maximum that you could shave off would be 50% of the profits, which would be $50k for every $1k price increase, at the same time, I have also attempted to personally stay way below those numbers, even when I am attempting to be fairly aggressive regarding an amount of dollar value that I want to get out, so frequently my authorization numbers for myself have been between 5% to 10% of the profits and at most 25%, so in this case, we can easily calculate those numbers to be authorizing the shaving off of value in the ballpark of $5k, $10k or $25k for every $1k that the price goes up until maybe reaching our maximum for the period or whatever other goals that we might have. 

Let's say for example that you have reached the 100BTC fuck you level that is currently being measured as entry level under the 200-week moving average valuation system, and you have decided that you would like to withdraw $100k per year of value from your BTC to provide for your lifestyle or to supplement whatever cash flow that you have.  I will assert that currently considering $100k per year is considerably within perpetually sustainable because with BTC we are likely able to use up to 12% per year of your 200-week moving average, even though 4% per year has traditionally been used for traditional asset valuations.  4% of the 200week moving average would actually be $80k per year.. but I will argue that is way too conservative because the 200 week moving average has been moving up 75% per year, and even 12% per year is sustainable.. which would put the sustainable amount at $240k per year, and we are ONLY planning to withdraw $100k per year.

I am not going to beat this point to death, but I do believe that currently, $100k per year withdrawal of anyone at an entry-level fuck you status of 100BTC is well within perpetually sustainable, and likely is going to need to up his/her BTC/dollar withdrawal rate in future years based on such a low withdraw level.

So, anyhow getting past the idea of $100k per year withdrawal rate, there are a lot of ways to structure a withdraw of $100k that could take place in incremental ways rather than just lump sum withdrawing.. . and there could be target price levels to withdraw $10k at a time..   Of course, there is more comfort and less urgency if you already have plenty of cash... .. but if you are planning to make BIG changes, then it might well be better to have 1-2 years of cash already on hand.. and then however far that you project out your cash, then to just plan to withdraw on a quarterly basis or some kind of way to attempt to withdraw during tops rather than bottoms (easier said than done)... I am starting to ramble.. I better stop.