No one can be sure about this. Bitcoin value might fall below 40K or even 10K.
40k is possible from the ATH but 10k? I don't think so.
Because I've been here in crypto space since 2016 and to be honest i never see bitcoin collapse from the ATH and fell like a rock, i mean not literally that seems the end is near..
I can't imagine what will be the reaction of some enthusiast if however they saw bitcoin suddenly collapse from 10k and the and current ATH is 60k.
Yes, Bitcoin never fell like a rock below its initial lowest price before the halving effect ATH market as you claimed but the market is full of possibilities, and the last time i checked the major investor of this current market is the institution which I believe most of them is yet to understand how crypto market works,
If the market replicates the old market correction/blood bath that always happens after Bitcoin halving effect market is over if the institutional investors panic sells their holding we may see the $10K price.