He knows what he is doing since he have experience in terms of going to combat but maybe he's down playing things regarding on those sanction that's why we see them suffering in some cases. But I don't think this will end up the war because it looks like this action taunt him to do more counteraction until Ukraine didn't surrender to them.
Everyone keeps saying that Putin knows what he is doing, but nobody is aware that he is a 70+ year old dictator on a power trip and trying to get whatever he wants because that is what he is used to, and more like a child crying in the middle of a supermarket calling moma I want to buy this thing and when she refuses that kid keeps on crying and disturbing everyone. That is the case here, we are not going to end up with anything special with Putin does and suddenly go "oohh that's what he was going for, now I get it, wow such a smart move".
No, he is just a dictator on a power trip trying to get away with whatever he wants, and this will keep on hurting Russians.