Quote from: rpietila on March 28, 2014, 12:32:10 PM

The bottom is in when everybody (I'm pointing to oyvinds, who is a reasonable guy) just makes up reasons why the price would fall further, to justify that they are selling out of rational grounds, and not out of FEAR, meanwhile happily ignoring the actual driver behind bitcoin price, which is bitcoin adoption. To keep it as simple as possible, I present only the following figures:

Block 270,000 (2013-11-16) 0.93 million non-dust addresses
Block 290,000 (2014-3-11) 1.34 million non-dust addresses

I agree, the bottom does not occur when most people stop believing in bitcoin future but rather when most people sell off just because they belive they will able to buy in again at a cheaper price. We saw this in July 2013. Although I generally like trading in bear trends, I've made an active choise not to trade during this trend anymore (unless something really obvious happens), due to the fact that people's attitude is beginning to align with this scenario. Kudos to those of you that have balls to trade at this stage!

Despite the error of the last prediction that 500 wouldn't be broken (although it fits well with the scenario you predicted before about a big spike down at the end of March Wink

), I have to give you credit for your predictions latley Risto! They have been pretty much spot on.

I also agree that Bitcoins value is based on the usage of the Bitcoin. Just like any technology/product where the usage of the product gives the product its value (rather than a product where the product itself defines the value, a simple example would of course be any social media like Facebook, or an invention like the telephone), the value of the Bitcoin will grow as long as the adoption continues.