3D thoughts

stronghands
I don't like greasy goose poop!!!
(This coming from the new kid, still FOMOing into every dip like dinner tonight is optional)
Snippity-snip-snip
Buying my weekly DCA religiously, and still in the green! (Current Cost Average $31,756, don't ask, you don't wanna talk about it)
I tried to do a quick look at
the DCA website to attempt to figure out what your average cost per BTC would have been with a strict DCA strategy, and I find it a bit confusing... even though it does show that a strict DCA'ing would be in 20% profits.. but the numbers still do not seem to add up.
Ultimately, I don't have any problem if you believe that you can attempt to employ more sophisticated strategies to attempt to beat a strict DCA strategy - nothing wrong with that... My main problem comes when guys try to suggest that whatever they are doing might be replicable to consistently beat a strict DCA strategy.. and frequently that is not the case.. frequently there is some special techniques or even luck involved that normies might not easily be able to deploy without increasing their odds of putting themselves in a worse situation.
But I freely admit, it's accumilating too slow!!! At this rate I may never reach 1 whole coin!
Of course you are in the best position to know your particulars and whether you are being sufficiently aggressive or maybe just too anxious. Wealth accumulation can take a whole long time - and even if you are not able to ever get up to 1 bitcoin, that still may well put you ahead of your peers..
For sure, when I came into bitcoin, I set myself a kind of ambitious accumulation target, but I was also starting out with more than 20 years of prior investment portfolio accumulation.. so that causes a quite different set of circumstances.. and I suppose my main point is that initially I thought that I might not ever reach my goal.. and I did end up reaching such goal in about 6-8 months.. mostly due to the BTC's price dropping.. but even my reaching the goal did not solve any profitability issues, because after I reached my goal, the BTC price kept dropping.. so I ended up getting way beyond my initial goal, and having to set new ones... and of course, the longer that you are in, it seems that you might not be playing around with large portions of your stash.. even though I do know that opinions vary, so some long time bitcoiners do play around with decently large portions of their stash... but not as many who really are concerned about long term investing that is 4-10 years or even longer than 10 years which would not be unusual for someone who is earlier in his/her investment career.
So everytime we dippedy-do down below $39k there I am bruising my dirty knees saying, "Please Baby, the Corn's so cheap!?! I don't have to eat dinner tonight, right???" Of course, being the smart woman she is, she says no as much as she says yes... bet then goes and blows the money on senseless things like dental appointments and electric bills!!! Oh well, guess there's worse things to fight about.
Balancing of the budget is a great thing... Surely you know that sometimes you can take some chances, but also there are needs to have back up plans too.. and the mere fact that you have a lower $30ks balance and you are in profits, you seem to be in a better position than I was 1 year after I had gotten into bitcoin, and even took me around 2.5 years to start to feel that I was in break even and low profits.. .. and of course, things did get better from there.. referring to late 2016 and thereafter.
You probably already know the saying about the need to go through a whole cycle.. but then again, questions about "what is a cycle" have been rearing their ugly heads in recent times, too... I would imagine that you should be in a good position in less than 3 years, and whether or not you need a whole coin might not really matter so much as jmust having an investment level that is suitable and workable for you.... We still are in the place where a 0.21 BTC initial bitcoin investment target would not necessarily be a bad thing for any bitcoin newbies.. and you realize too that there are so many people who are still not in bitcoin, so I would imagine 3-4 years from now, realistic newbie entry-level accumulation targets might have to add a zero onto that and maybe shoot for 0.021 BTC or 2.1 million sats. Sure... speculation.. and if you do not screw up then you should be multiples higher than those entry levels.. and also many of us look back and we see that we would not have been able to accumulate the number of coins that we currently have under almost any circumstances - absent winning the lottery or some lame unlikely event like that.... for sure, whole coiners are already rare and likely to become even more rare... especially for normies.... or is the word plebs?
Am I the only one who still thinks PlanB's model is not only a still not invalidated, but indeed the longer we go below the line this cycle the more likely we spring up even higher to compensate during the current epoch? (Not saying we Will... But if we do...)
I think many folks latched onto his somewhat conservative 100k by 12\21 prediction and when that didnt come true they declared his whole theory invalid.
But it isn't. Yet.
I don't even really subscribe to the model, and think it nearly certainly is invalidated in time.
But it simply is not yet. If we rocket deep into 6 figures I wonder if people will admit they were wrong as quickly as they jumped to accuse him of that.
We may get to see!

A little hopium never killed no one, right?
