...
Wish Red Cross would provide some data, but nevertheless that's very interesting way of reporting, 800 cars left Mariupol, 2000 people made it through Russian-occupied territory to UA side. That's 2.5person/car. Either cars leaving besieged city half empty, cars are grabbing coffee taking their time and still driving through Russian side or ...
Factions of the Ukrainian side have been, since very nearly the start of this thing, using civilians as human shields as a strategy. By most of the interviews I've heard, civilians are reporting that the Russians have been fairly helpful in trying to allow them to leave the combat zones when they can. This makes logical sense, and most of the actual evidence that I can see backs that up. This is a good case-in-point where as the Russian gain control, freedom of movement seems to be restored.
And that's what it pretty much comes down to. Despite common sense, you have to make yourself believe that Putin, his generals, officers and soldiers all like killing innocent people just so much, to the point where they prefer taking cities with maximum amount of civilians still inside (despite troop morale, contrary to all independent indicators from Red Cross/UN, and lack of any military sense) because alternative would lead to accepting that a neo-nazi battalion is leveraging civilians to stall their own ultimate demise. Apparently some minds are just so set that they're just unable to accept that there are some bad actors in Ukraine.
For my part, I would not have any trouble believing that '
the Russians' could and would inflict excess civilian casualties if it were in their interest to do so. It just seems that in this case, having the upper hand militarily. and the need to maintain some degree of morale among their own population and forces, it just isn't really a logical strategy. (Most ordinary peeps in the military or not have enough morality such that wanton murder takes a toll on morale.) The more coherent body of evidence that I can see indicates that they are, if anything, seeking to avoid excess civilian damage. This is what I would do if I intended to make the region a client-state and buffer zone in the longer term.
It seems to me that the people who have overall control are the Neocon faction of which Victoria Nudelman is a poster-child. They pretty much completely control the 'Ukrainians' and very likely exert influence over the 'Russians' through Putin and certain of his advisors as well. Honestly, these people seem to be complete psychopaths to the degree that even absent and advantage to themselves, they would prefer to see destruction, suffering, and general mayhem. It's almost a religious thing so it seems, but there is also the operational concept that in order to bring 'order out of chaos', one first needs maximum chaos.
Fortunately for the Neocons, the Nazis are stupid enough to be lead by the nose straight to their deaths.