Good analysis. While we can never know for sure, I think you and I agree that it is quite unlikely that we will go over $69K this cycle. I remember after the January 2018 price drop that there was a lot of analysis justifying why the Bitcoin price was going to rise again and surpass $20K, which was true, but 4 years later. The current situation looks like the same thing. We will surpass $70K but around 2025 unless we have some very bullish events for Bitcoin before then, like some major country implementing El Salvador type legislation or the world's largest capitalization companies announcing they are buying Bitcoin for their reserves.
When I cite the theory of cyclicality as an argument, then on this forum many users do not want to consider it and say that past events cannot be taken as an argument, because bitcoin is developing and everything is changing. But so far, since 2013, when bitcoin has been constantly developing, the market has followed a cycle of growth-fall-recovery-accumulation for 8 years (that is, most of the life of bitcoin).
I would be glad if this cycle breaks and we continue to grow, breaking all trends, predictions and charts. But I personally have little faith that the market will allow coins that are in large numbers in weak hands to rise. The market will most likely want to take these coins and redistribute them to stronger hands.