I never liked speculating price by looking at what is happening on chain because I don't find a strong relationship between the two. For example take this line you posted here. The main reason why supply on centralized exchanges go down (or up) is how volatile the price is.

What is the "supply on centralized exchange" anyways? Is it not the bitcoins that users deposit on exchanges? Why do people make such deposits? To trade with. They do that when price is making big moves. For example one trader may sell after a big rise to buy back after the small correction, etc. But when price becomes more stable or market becomes less predictable, the traders tend to stay away from the market because it becomes harder to make profit. That means they withdraw the coins they had on exchanges and "supply on centralized exchange" goes down.

You can't predict the market this way because it shows what happened so far not what is going to happen.