The things you said are true but the market has grown than it was 4 years ago, i am also expecting a major correction but there are multiple factors that are in play we did not have in the past, including institutional investors who is holding billions of dollars worth of cryptocurrencies and if anyone of these institutional investors think about booking their profit then we will see the market going for a major correction, till now they are selling off strategically rather than dumping everything and then another factor is the global financial sector where everyone is expecting major inflation and i am curious what the investors will do during these situation, where they will go after gold or they will set a portion for the cryptocurrency market as well during those situations.
It is clear that the market will not repeat exactly all the events of past cycles. The last cycle was based on the pump by speculative retail investors, and the next cycle is already, as you rightly noted, on the institutional pump. That is, Bitcoin began to be actively used by another category of investors. But does this mean that we will not be able to repeat the past events of fall-recovery-accumulation.
It's just that in this cycle it might not be as bright as it was in 2018. Also, do not forget that the main purchases of bitcoin by institutionals took place at $10,000-$22,000. Most likely, this is the real fundamental support for Bitcoin in the next cycle. So there is still a chance that the price will fall, at least for a short time, to these values.
Think logically, past growth was based on purchases of institutionals, the average cost of their purchases is much lower than the prices that have been traded over the past 2 months. The number of coins held by market tourists and retailers is still high (about 2,500,000
BTC) It will be beneficial for the same institutions to lower the market so low that they can replenish their stocks with cheap bitcoin and then start a new bull run. Institutions are in no hurry to buy bitcoin at $40,000.