History isn't repeating itself over again, as per last bull market in 2017 by now we should be in bear market already, I expected BTC to tanked to 20k range but it's not happening instead it's trying to such to reclaim 40k range I think bear market is still a bit far away.
Just so you know, to mine one btc takes 13k usd for it, meaning btc to crash to 13k or below is very possible and normal as it would imply bear market is here, usually bear market is mining at loss, meaning, btc needs to crash below 13k for that, before last halving, to mine one btc used to be 6k usd and btc price was lower than 6k, meaning it was confirmed to be in a bear market, btc is not centralized like eth, btc devs cant just change reward per block if they want to because that would go against the initial project, eth devs have done that many times, reason eth got very high on market cap, meaning btc cant grow that much per cycle, btc has cycle, eth has forks, anyway, what is important in btc is how much you pay to mine one btc. Smart traders are not overpaying for btc, who are buying btc right now are not smart traders but that is normal as many new traders dont know how btc mining works and there are many of them right now but reality will catch up.