~snip~
Why do you think Bitcoin will probably not going lower than 40.000?
^ PROBABLY it will not.
No one will really know, we are just speculating the possibility that happens, it's been always BTC price is unpredictable.
I am not good at speculating using technical analysis, the common that I have used is a fundamental strategy which is sometimes relying upon news before you will have a better answer. So for now, it seems there is no good news around, and after this massive fall, there will be resistance and that is what I have got right now. BTC will remain unpredictable and no one really knows.