Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

Quote from: JayJuanGee on March 28, 2022, 02:29:52 PM

I surely would not put $120k at more than 40% odds for this calendar year, even though on December 6, I had assigned 44.5% odds of such number having had been reached by this calendar year or by no later than 1st quarter 2023. Perhaps bitcoinPsycho has assigned higher odds than me? perhaps greater than 50/50? I might consider anyone assigning greater than 75% odds to something like that to be a bit looney.. yet sometimes it is a matter of degree (or probability assignments) rather than disagreeing on likely direction.. but just how likely remains another aspect to consider.. how far and how likely.

I agree with your probability of 40% (or 45?) that Bitcoin reaches $120k+ in 2022. That sounds good. fairly bullish in my opinion. As there are lots of scenarios in the other 60% (35?) where Bitcoin makes it to somewhere north of 80.

But I will add a prediction of my own.

*IF* we make it to 120k... a quarter mill within 6 months from that would be a 75% chance.

My basic reasoning is if we can make it that far past 100k, then I would think something between worldwide FOMO and a parabolic blow off are in the cards. And I would favor the former. I think we stay volatile, but less so that in past years. Another way to say it is I see 120k+ to be a 25% chance of being the TOP in your 40% chance scenario.