Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Pay in rubles or have your gas shut off by April
by
be.open
on 07/04/2022, 08:28:07 UTC
There are different, even opposing, analyses as regards Germany's fate should it decide to wean itself completely from Russia's gas and oil and even coal. But the numbers don't lie and that Germany is in fact heavily reliant on Russia with regard to these goods. This must be the reason why Germany was more careful in their steps when Russia started to invade Ukraine. But eventually it seemed Germany had to take that bold step. It is either they will remain hostage by Russia or they will contribute pressure for Putin to stop his madness. And Germany chose the latter. It is now their responsibility to urgently find alternatives.
I think Germany's problem is that there is no alternative to Russian pipeline gas right now and even in the next year or two. There is not enough gas supply on the market to replace the volumes that fell in the event of an embargo and will not be in the near future, there are not so many tankers and so many terminals for liquefied gas, and it takes time to build them. Under Merkel, Germany fell under the political influence of the Greens and closed its nuclear power industry, from 01/01/2022 three of the six German reactors were shut down, and from 01/01/2023 the other three will also stop. Cheap Russian pipeline gas is needed for German industry and as a raw material for fertilizers, even if it can be replaced with liquefied gas, it will be noticeably more expensive and this will make production in Germany simply uncompetitive. And in the absence of wind and generation on windmills, the embargo on Russian gas can even de-energize Germany.