Well, unless a really high rate solo miner comes along, chances are cryptopool.eu will get that block - it's managed to get ~70% of the recent blocks.

I've been playing with solo mining for the last few hours and scored a couple of blocks, but it's bed time now and I figure I might as well take my chance in the pool for a small share than leave my little rig mining with a miniscule chance at the big blocks.