Chain analysis can only help us get a good grasp at how supply moves; but it doesn't give us a clear picture of the potential demand — which is what actually mostly matters when talking about markets. Can't really have accurate expectations with supply alone.
Chain analysis is only part of the guide for us to carry out the analysis and even this becomes a source of reinforcement in decision making, but as you mentioned, it does not make a clear picture of demand, which I think is of particular concern regarding market developments and volatility, due to market reactions really determines how a particular coin can move quickly to the fore
On chain anaysis of bitcoin are too much bullish but the bitcoin price movement does not correlate the on chain anaylsis data. This shows that only the on chain and fundamental anaylsis is not sufficient to determine the price of the bitcoin and crypto currenccies. There are other demand and supply factors which determine the prices of bitcoin.
In the long term bitcoin will rise but for the short term combining both techinical and fundamental anaylsis may still not be sufficent to know the next direction of the market.