If/when the 200-Week MA indicator is touched, it will be the third time in Bitcoin's 13-year-long history.

1st touch: 3-Sep-2015 (200-Week MA: $234, Spot: $231)
2nd touch: 12-Mar-2020 (200-Week MA: $5488, Spot: $5143)

There was one more time that the 200-Week MA was almost touched: 14-Feb 2019 (200-Week MA: $3319 Spot: $3583). This, together with the March 2021 ATH could be seen as evidence to support the bearish scenario described below.

Touching the 200-Week MA indicator is a rare event, which, based on past historical data, appears to possess some useful properties:

1. Periodicity — Its occurrence correlates with Bitcoin's 4-year Halving cycle. Specifically, it appears to occur some months before Halving.
2. Correlation with ATH — ATHs tend to occur about 2 years after the 200-Week MA touch event.

Bullish scenario — Based on the dates of the above 200-Week MA touch events, the ATH associated with the 2nd touch may not have occurred yet (the ATH on March 2021 happened too soon and does not satisfy the 2nd property above). In fact, according to the 2nd property, the next ATH should come around this time (1st half of 2022). It is possible that this has not yet happened due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and other world events. Based on the above, it is reasonable to expect the next ATH to occur sometime in 2022.

Bearish scenario — If what Jay describes as a possibility in the quote above actually happens, i.e., that the 200-Week MA is touched before we get another ATH, then this would shift upcoming events further into the future, by treating the March 2021 ATH as the main ATH of this cycle. Specifically, the next 200-Week MA touch event should occur sometime in late 2023 (say, 6 months before the Halving of March 2024—property 1), followed by the upcoming ATH, which should occur around 2 years later (property 2). This gives us an expected ATH date of late 2025.

Without disregarding the bearish scenario, I'm more inclined to place my bets on the bullish scenario, given that we are still somewhat early in the 4-year cycle, and lots of things are happening in the world that could be putting a downward pressure on price, and thus inserting a time lag in the upcoming price action events. However, anything is possible, really, and we could be in for a long wait to reach ATH and beyond. Regardless, I'm not worried at all. It's not an IF, but a WHEN, and it will certainly happen "soon" in a monetary investment timescale.

GTCTTWW — HoDL.

[Numerical Data Source] LookIntoBitcoin — 200 Week Moving Average Heatmap