A "nice" Cryptotourist? wouldn't that be an oxymoron (pun intended)?
Nah.
Nice to see you try to tackle the Greek language.
That was Greek?
I thought that I was typing in English.
As an added thought, your quants would feel right at home if they were programmed in Greek. #just.saying
Oh?
You might know better than me.
Secondly: Hypothetically going into JJG comparison mode, would call for long? deep? mean? or some other approach?
Wait. I was only referring to the daunting “walls of text” - in my usual personal style - insulting n all.
That will teach you. If that's possible?
Maybe I should not be asking the above questions, right? You know there's an expression about not feeding "them," right?
I make sure to feed all my pets on the WO. That includes you too.
Sounds like you have "control
(sense of superiority) issues," if you believe in that "pet" theory.
[...]
I am not even saying that the 200-week moving average might not be touched before we get another ATH...
[...]
If/when the 200-Week MA indicator is touched, it will be the third time in Bitcoin's 13-year-long history.
1st touch: 3-Sep-2015 (200-Week MA:
$234, Spot:
$231)
2nd touch: 12-Mar-2020 (200-Week MA:
$5488, Spot:
$5143)
There was one more time that the 200-Week MA was
almost touched: 14-Feb-2019 (200-Week MA:
$3319 Spot:
$3583). This, together with the 2021 ATHs could be seen as evidence to support the bearish scenario described below.
Touching the 200-Week MA indicator is a rare event, which, based on past historical data, appears to possess some useful properties:
I will agree that touching the 200-week moving average isn't that common, but I would 1) characterize it happening more frequently than you are describing it and 2) agree with your overall point that it might not even be guaranteed to touch it in the future.
It seems to occur every 4 years or so, and I think that the March 2020 touching event was a bit of a quirk.
2012 - right around 6 months the BTC price hovered around $4.
2015 - around 10 months the BTC price was in the lower to mid $200s.
late 2018 until April 2019 - BTC price in the upper $3ks
March 2020 - BTC price was below $5k for only about a week and a half.
1. Periodicity — Its occurrence correlates with Bitcoin's 4-year Halving cycle. Specifically, it appears to occur some months before Halving.
2. Correlation with ATH — ATHs tend to occur about 2 years
after the 200-Week MA touch events.
Bullish scenario — Based on the dates of the above 200-Week MA touch events, the ATH associated with the 2nd touch may not have occurred yet (the 2021 ATHs happened too soon and for odd reasons, and do not quite satisfy the 2nd property above). In fact, according to the 2nd property, the next ATH should come around this time (1st half of 2022). It is possible that this has not yet happened due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and other world events. Based on the above,
it is reasonable to expect the next ATH to occur sometime in 2022.Bearish scenario — If what Jay describes as a possibility in the quote above actually happens, i.e., that the 200-Week MA is touched
before we get another ATH, then this would shift upcoming events further into the future, by treating the 2021 ATHs as the main ATH events of this cycle. Specifically, the next 200-Week MA touch event should occur sometime in late 2023 (say, 6 months before the Halving of March 2024—property 1), followed by the upcoming ATH, which should occur around 2 years later (property 2).
This gives us an expected ATH date of late 2025.Without disregarding the bearish scenario, I'm more inclined to place my bets on the bullish scenario, given that we are still somewhat early in the 4-year cycle, and lots of things are happening in the world that could be putting a downward pressure on price, and thus inserting a time lag in the upcoming price action events. However, anything is possible, really, and we could be in for a long wait to reach ATH and beyond. Regardless, I'm not worried at all. It's not an IF, but a WHEN, and it will certainly happen "soon" in a monetary investment timescale.
GTCTTWW —
HoDL.[Numerical Data Source] LookIntoBitcoin — 200 Week Moving Average Heatmap I don't disagree with any of the rest of your framings... including your weigh the possibility of upside scenarios and downside scenario - as well as considering that upside scenarios have ongoingly good chances of happening... even if they are no where close to guaranteed in terms of how far they will go or when they might happen, and even if we were to consider some of the downward pushing of the BTC price, those kinds of pushing of the BTC price down can actually end up having the BTC price explode upwardly - contrary to the desires of some of the folks ongoingly attempting to push BTC prices down when they seem to not want to go down.