It has admittedly been a long time since I did an analysis of the network, but the last time I did I found a fair value assessment of around $4,000.  Granted that was probably 6 years ago, but I haven't seen any real value additions to give the network more real value since that time.  Sure, there's been a little more adoption and inflation is out of control, so without doing any actual analysis and pulling a number out of my ass, I'd say that the true value of Bitcoin at this point is probably closer to $10,000 than the price we're seeing in the markets today.  This is because everyone is investing so they aren't left behind if true adoption is reached and the valuation skyrockets.  It's a gamble buying Bitcoin, and I think everyone knows that.  The thing with investments is that you're investing in the unknown, not the known.  So the $40,000 valuation we're seeing on exchanges takes into account that people think Bitcoin has a bright future.  Whether or not the actual future is greater or less than expectations will determine if the price rises or falls from here.  Personally, I'm starting to feel like people are forecasting a brighter future than will be realized for Bitcoin, but I do have my fingers crossed.