I am not even saying that you do not have some rights to be smug, even if I am calling you a fucker the whole time.

 

For sure, the BTC price's taking the $69k to $32,951 correction since November 9th has put some dampers on some of the UPpity potentialities, so surely, I doubt that I am living in any kind of fantasy in my own expectations, hopes and assignment of probabilities, which I will concede both have to move downward when we get stuck in these lower prices, and also with the passage of time, then it becomes less likely that the BTC price can overcome some of the resistances to both start a kind of upwards clime and then to allow for ongoing momentum that is not significantly or meaningfully corrected - whether we are referring to a calendar year (such as 2022) time frame or we are attempting to adjust the timeframe as we go to possibly make the timeframe longer to account for the passage of time.

Furthermore, I am not even going to presume that we are going to have to stick with the earlier framings of either the stock-to-flow model and/or the 4-year fractal - if the actual factual performance is drawing us outside of some of the logical underpinnings of those framings. 

I don't consider the stock-to-flow nor the 4-year fractal to be out of play yet - even though I can appreciate the compellingness such framings continue to diminish with the passage of time... such as already having had passed through nearly 4 months into 2022.

And, yeah, even our recent pushes to get above $46k on a couple of occasions did not solidly cause us to have confidence that the $32,951 bottom is "in" even though having had spent more than a week over $46k does give some higher levels of confidence (maybe not quite higher than 50%) that the $32,951 bottom is in.. and even I had moved my own goal posts regarding that matter even before $46k had been surpassed in late March - about a month ago.


Of course, ongoingly there are some real bullshit talking points out there, and even if some of these negative campaigns (regulatory happenings) might end up playing out to contribute towards slowing down in bitcoin's UPpity scenarios, there still are no sound money competitors even if various government regulations start to side towards the propping up of smoke and mirror houses of cards.. They are likely to impose their own costs upon themselves if they are going to provide favoritism to the various scamming systems - not that fiat does not already have some of its own misleading and scamming elements.

Since both you and I know that bitcoin does not have any marketing team beyond the voluntary passions of a bunch of individuals, I doubt that "we" as a community really need to come together to agree to combat the same things - even though it is quite likely that there would end up being a lot of backlash from a lot of bitcoiners if the EU or other various European governments were to be so dumb in their enactment of some of those kinds of regulatory efforts favoring ETH over BTC.