Interesting points, but:


What I notice about the July 2013 capitulation is some very high volume (relative to the time) around the days prior to and after the final low. In contrast, the volume around the present low has been in contrast, average and the most notable trades have been large scale dumps, with the price rising on much lower volume. I am open to the idea of this being a big fish accumulation period and will gladly jump on board the gravy train when/if Bitcoin rebounds proper off the $400 zone, which I think it will in the first instance as too many people are seeing this as the ultimate bottom. However, for this to be a trend reveral proper, Bitcoin needs to break through the long term down trend that has been in place since the Dec double top. The big fishes will have done their shopping  $400-$450, the gravy train riders will have gotten in $450-$500, the panic buyers $500-$550........and then who is buying? Nobody? Well guess what happens next amongst a back drop of hoardes of stolen coins and arbitrage taking and USD cashing out Chinese? If Bitcoin swings strongly upwards from the $400 zone, but fails to break and confirm itself beyond the long term down trend, I doubt that the market will waste much time in deciding Bitcoin's fate. There will be no doubts and a race to take profits/cut losses. How would support at and above $380 be if such a scenario were to play out, and lets face it, it easily could. Hate to say it but what Bitcoin probably needs to avoid an inevitable slide below $380 is some kind of isolated non USD economic crisis, and a bit of good old capital flight.......which is what I have come to believe Bitcoin was designed for in the first place (I have gone from being a libertarian 'believer' to having the view that Bitcoin is most likely a US intelligence agency project) .