Miners have two classes: big miners and small miners. Small miners are mostly weak hands and they will capitulate in bear market. It has happened in the past before last 3 halvings. It will repeat in future in my opinion.
In theory, with each halving, block reward halved and as consequence of it, Bitcoin price should increase (should double its price at least). How about miner transaction fee?
If the transaction fee (in satoshi) for each block remains the same, what do you think about income for miners (only take into account the part from transaction fee, not block reward)?
Let's see two possibilities
- Total transaction fee in satoshi value: remains the same >> income should increase because BTC increases in value
- Total transaction fee in satoshi value increases. Why? In future, I believe there will be more demand on Bitcoin transaction on the network, so people might join fee rate race that give miners better chances to confirm transactions paid by higher fee rate/ vbyte. Then, it will be multiplied by the increase of BTC price. Consequently, we should see a double-effect (positively) on miner income
Small miners are weak hands and they capitulate in bear market? Why would they continue if they make no profit? Makes no sense at all. Instead they could just bitcoin and hold it. Make more profit. I don't think there is anything such as weak hand or strong hand in mining. No one is going to maintain the network if there is no profit from it.
So the two possibilities favor the miners only. No more cheap fees. Wasn't bitcoin supposed to be better because it offers the cheapest fee for cross border transaction? Small transaction will no longer be feasible. People will start using it as a store of value (like they already do right now).