From the look of things, there is a high probability that Bitcoin would sink to $30,000 or even lower by this fall. It looks that way from both the point of technical analysis and the ongoing global economic and geopolitical turmoils that are unlikely to cease in the near future.

From the point of TA, Bitcoin seems to have failed to establish a foothold above $40,000, and the momentum is obviously on the bearish side - check out both MACD and Stochastic. The selling pressure right now is just too strong for any rally, and it could stay this way for at least a few months.
And when it comes to fundamentals, they also aren't on BTC's side. Simply put, retail investors won't be buying a risky asset on the verge of WWIII and possibly of global food shortage, accompanied by soaring fuel prices. All in all, the world is too turbulent right now and BTC is too volatile, hence risky, for the rally to occur. It could have been the case if Russians actively used crypto as a means to evade sanctions but apparently, that loophole has been closed.