Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
JayJuanGee
on 10/05/2022, 18:16:01 UTC

For sure, I understand the point of the meme... but at the same time, there is some practicality of NOT letting the perfect be the enemy of the good.

In that regard, each person needs to figure out both how they are going to start to get exposure to bitcoin, and then if they do end up getting bitcoin exposure (which surely is recommended for everyone in this here world who has at least a 4-year investment timeline), another matter would be figuring out at what point, that bitcoin needs to be personally held rather than being held by third parties.

I doubt that the answer is that absolutely no value should be kept on exchanges (or with third parties), and surely some folks are structured in their wealth in a variety of ways that they might not feel any need to hold much if any bitcoin privately (even though recently we had seen some of the seemingly desperate measures that governments might take from time to time, and thus also influencing third-parties to potentially interfere or rob.. access to value).

For sure, systematically, bitcoin is way less powerful when folks hold it with third parties, but still the answer of how much to hold privately and how much to hold with third parties is not likely to have all or nothing  calculations for a lot of people who may well be wanting to keep their options open.. .. and also trying to keep a leg in both worlds while we are continuing to transition more and more away from  the various fiat institutions including that it could take 50 to 100 years to really have a meaningful transition away from fiat institutions.. so I doubt that the timeline of many of us is going to be holding and waiting for that long into the future - so a practical approach for a large number of folks from a variety of demographics (and economic levels) would likely be trying to ongoingly figuring out prudent and practical ways to ongoingly straddle both the fiat systems world while getting various kinds of (hopefully ongoingly increasing) exposure to bitcoin.

Well isn't BTC being a good sport, giving all those who didn't dare to buy last July and September a new opportunity to get in.

Exactly!!!!!!

Try to consider the positive... even though some of those fucks do not really deserve to get in at these prices, but whatever, bitcoin is going to do what it is going to do.. and cannot really do too much about it except maybe just attempt to tailor our own plans so that we are not feeling screwed financially or psychologically by whatever place we might be and where-ever we might be going in the short-term.

Regarding the short-term, who knows? 

I did not really anticipate having to concede that we have likely transitioned into a bear market, and for my own assessment, the 100-week moving average seems to be such a line .. which is at $35k.. and we have been below it for nearly three days now... so kind of difficult to deny once the price dropped below that point, and so far we are stuck below it..

So then one of the questions likely becomes how long are we going to stay below the 100-week moving average and for how long are these sales prices going to last?  just for a few more days?  a few weeks?  Months?  more than 6 months?..

I am personally not wanting to be a naysayer, but weeks or months does not sound unrealistic.. even though there does remain a possibility (for sure less than 50% and maybe even less than 40%) that the price bounces back above the 100-week moving average in less than a week... 3 days so far.. how long is it going to take?  BIG question, and I would not presume to know.. but I do know that once there is an assessment of being in a bear market, then the presumption should be that any consolidation break out will be to the downside.. and surely the opposite is true in a bull market.. so here we are.    Cry Cry Cry Cry Cry  - likely in a place that the vast majority of us do not want to be.. because the vast majority of us are into bitcoin because we want NGU to actually play out in the real world, not just in our hopes.