Op,  I don't think they're stupid , it's called speculation everyone is entitled to their opinion on any given subject matter.
When it comes to the money market , trading and investment anything is possible.
Question......
Would you foretell we would have gotten to $24k ?, looking at how everyone was saying that 30k would be buttom for BTC.
This is why I say that the market is reactive and not predictive , change with the current changing market conditions.