I see a spring that is coiling.
care to be more explicit? it does seem like we're near a market bottom, unless the price support in my previous post fails (which seems awfully unlikely given the bid support at Bitstamp). but all i've pointed out is that we haven't yet seen quite enough volume for the downtrend from $600 to terminate, based on the two previous capitulation events in the past 5 months.
in the short-term, i see an ascending triangle consolidation pattern forming that will likely terminate with a bulltrap that fails to break out above the moving resistance defining this downtrend:
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6-hour scale
http://i.imgur.com/8jn5sjB.png
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granted, this will be an important test, and a decision point to give the market a chance to reverse at these price levels. however, i anticipate that ask depth will steadily fill in during this consolidation and the market will be ready for another move down by the time we reach this resistance.
--arepo
The volume was there on the way to 440ish, not sure if your triangle will break down. The bids started coming in...
We'd need more 100+ sells into the bid to break the 440. Looks like a bottom is in. Temporary or not, not sure.
Small positive divergences as well.
we just witnessed an impressive upwards breakout in the last 2 hours. good catch on the small bullish divergences in the indicators, i was keeping an eye on these as well. however, the 1-hour candle just closed in a high-volume "doji" on Huobi, and a high-volume "shooting star" on Bitstamp; both of these are signs of reversal. the model you quoted can still come to pass if a subsequent correction downwards takes us under the $455 starting point of this push. the upwards breakout was a little larger than expected, but i think it was a significant short squeeze which added some volume to a movement up through a thin orderbook.
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4-hour scale
http://i.imgur.com/0hbbNkP.png
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on the 4-hour scale, we can see two short-term resistances here. one was the upper bound for the consolidation pattern, triggering the upwards movement once the price broke above. the other stalled the rally. the model is still intact, as long as we see a full retrace of this movement.
--arepo