maybe there will be a last bulltrap before the merge
This could happen, but with the economic troubles in the U.S., coin prices should go sideways at best. We will probably have a crab market.
too many eth coins were staked, the sell off after the merge will be insane and that is when we will know the true bottom for btc and eth.
Historically, mining ETH has been 20-30% cheaper than buying ETH. If you're right, it will actually be cheaper to buy Ethers than mine altcoins then convert them to Ethers for the first time ever. That would only lead to more miners liquidating their rigs, meaning we could see RTX 3060 Ti cards going to as low as $250.