Post
Topic
Board Mining (Altcoins)
Re: Death of Etheruem mining - Predicitions
by
FP91G
on 25/05/2022, 12:48:51 UTC
More blocktime estimates have been posted at: https://ethresear.ch/t/blocks-per-week-as-an-indicator-of-the-difficulty-bomb/12120/22 (see last post/graph)

Jun 15 estimated block times: ~15 secs
July 15 estimated block times: ~18 secs
Aug 15 estimated block times: ~21 secs

Vitalik in a previous core dev call said they can tolerate 20-25 sec block times as they've done in the past.

So given the schedule for the upcoming Ropsten testnet merge on Jun 8, plus two weeks running on Ropsten, then a further two testnet merges running for two weeks each, followed by a couple of weeks to schedule mainnet merge, brings it to around mid-Aug.

If their estimates of 21 secs in mid-Aug is correct then they might not delay the bomb anymore (barring any issues during the upcoming testnet merges).
Anyway, more information about the end of mining will be in July. If there are problems during testing, then you will probably have to move the difficulty bomb. Developers will probably not allow more than 25 seconds for a block, but miners will soon notice a decrease in profit.