We are heading in a tough bear market I think you need to adjust your advice for newbies, many altcoins will die or vanish, holding Bitcoin and stable coin is the best thing to do right now, when things starts to settle that's when newbies should start picking their favourite altcoins.
No, I'm not seeing will getting back similar to the 2018-2020 bear season where the market badly facing the major price drops. I'm sure that people had already learned to become strong and able to hold their funds these days. In fact, if we could see the trend, it was too far from what it happened in the previous bear season. Though we got this situation back again, I see the market remains healthy in the sense that Bitcoin never falls below $20k, and I really never think it comes.
The fear index is real, people you say? Survival is what matters to people, if situation of the economy gets worsen people won't care about holding crypto anymore, there are still millions of millions people who haven't even invested in crypto yet because of lack of regulation.