During World War II the world's major powers were bombed back to the stone age. With the exception of two nations. Russia and the united states. This set the stage for america and russia to emerge as the world's dominant superpowers leading into the cold war, korean war and vietnam war which followed.
Both the USSR and USA enjoyed the luxury of surviving World War II with their territories and economies largely intact. Profiting handsomely by loaning capital to other nations to rebuild. While the rest of the world toiled under debt and reconstruction efforts.
Looking at the current era a similar trend could emerge. America, the european union and china all carry large ratios of debt to GDP close to 100%. Russia's debt to GDP ratio is by far the smallest of any major power at around 20%. If a major recession hit global markets a case could be made for russia's government and economy being best structured to weather it. Russia is one of the most self sufficient nations in terms of raw materials, food and energy production. Russia also has many other world powers reliant and dependent on them for natural gas and other resources.
Long story short russia has many advantages over the USA, EU and china if an economic crisis hits.
If global markets are devastated by a crisis, russia is (in my opinion) the number #1 prospect to emerge as the next dominant superpower.
To avoid this, I think the united states would do well to keep its economy strong. As a hedge against russian encroachment. There isn't much alternative deterrent.
While russia's invasion of ukraine has stalled. Russia isn't trying very hard. They don't have to. They simply have to wait for the next big economic crisis when free money and support thrown at ukraine can no longer be funded. Then resistance may well crumble.
The best deterrent against invasion and war may be a strong economy with enough liquidity to make invasion too high priced too consider. Our current era with high deficits and weak economies could be interpreted as an open invitation for ambitious regimes like russia to invade us.
On the plus side if russia is the next dominant superpower they may be bitcoin friendly. At least that would be one positive thing we might look forward to in the horror show that could be the future.
I must admit I agree with most of your reasoning. Yes Russia debt to GDP ratio is one of the lowest in the world, yes Russia didn't go along with the whole debt bubble unlike China, yes in history empires tend for some reasons to confront Russia before they collapse (Napoleon, 3rd Reich...). All very puzzling and I don't really know what to make of it.