You put a lot of weight in your humongous pride, as if someone presenting analytical discussion is worried. I am not worried about the BTC price. I could careless because I don't own any BTC nor am I itching to buy any. And you put a lot of weight in arbitrary curve fits.

And people who think they know every thing for sure (and you don't even enumerate the arbitrary assumptions in your model), eventually get a lesson in respecting chaos. Maybe not this time. No one knows. But eventually yes.

I hope you realize the following chart is arbitrary BS.




And why not drawn like this? A least squares fit is an arbitrary choice of slope, because the curve you are fitting is not very linear. The 2011 outlier is your big problem with choosing this arbitrary fit. And we can't really trust that early data back in 2010.

The green line looks much more accurate to me. It removes that bubble from 2013 and follows a trendline from before the bubble started. Or we stay with the purple trendline, in which case the price is almost down to the purple line.

You need to update your chart. The price is now lower than shown.





Also refer to my upthread post quoted below pointing out that adoption (and thus BTC ≅ adoption^2) is likely log-logistic, not logistic. Thus we see the first slope to 2011 was higher, then the slope from 2012 to 2014 was the purple line, and now we may be ready to transition into an even lower slope, such as the green line.