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I completely agree with you Jay. My point of view was more of a long term outlook, in the case that Bitcoin becomes so dominant that hodling alone won’t bring gains anymore. Then i think the incentives change and it will be used as a currency. But we’re still far away from this point. I just brought this up, because it kinda defeats the ponzi narrative, if Bitcoin really was a ponzi, then why does it stop bringing gains once it’s used everywhere and you wouldn’t even need to convert it into other currencies. But it’s a win/win situation for us hodlers, because it serves us like a stock or safe haven, as long as the old broken system continues and in case Bitcoin wins we get an ultra sound money system and early investors got rewarded for making it happen(because they have stacked the most sats).
For sure, there is a lot of speculation regarding how much bitcoin is designed to pump forever.. both in terms of value continuing to flow into it (Gresham's law principles) and the fact that other assets are still going to exist and there will likely still be some monetary attributions that are contained within various other assets, too...
From what we can see now, bitcoin is likely to remain as the most sound of the monetary assets - absent some other more sound money product coming around.. which surely is possible.. but hard to presume facts that are currently not in evidence, and there currently do not seem to be any assets in existence that competes with bitcoin in terms of being able to serve as both a storage of value and a currency in terms of bitcoin having the best of currency characteristics too.. at least in terms of verifiability, portability, divisibility and ease of being able to personally custody it (if desired).
For sure, many of the current bitcoin HODLers might ONLY have an investment timeline of 4-30 years (accounting for mortality), so even if there are people who attempt to design and predict for the future, there can still be mixed sentiments regarding personal allocations into bitcoin in order to prepare so far into the future, and even if some members plan to attempt to leave legacies in terms of their bitcoin, they still might be struck with some dilemmas regarding how to pass down such legacies and the extent to which they might have to make sure that they have persons who can manage their bitcoin wealth.. which also could be laden with uncertainties too far into the future.
I guess that part of my point remains that shorter term time horizons still remain more important to current BTC HODLers, even if we anticipate that bitcoin remains open to new entrants too.. since we still ONLY have such low levels of adoption.. so there are likely to continue to be usability changes that could affect the ways that BTC HODLers think about the value of what they are holding and if they might need to make adjustments to their BTC allocations.. based on their own personal circumstances that do not necessarily go into generational wealth kinds of considerations... because so many new entrance into the bitcoin space continue to build their bitcoin positions in the coming years.. which well could take us into a dynamic of growth, adoption and building of systems around bitcoin that is lasting 20-30 years or more into the future.
Interesting points, some things that i didn’t consider before, thanks for bringing it up. There’s just so many different variables and it’s hard to predict what will happen in the future. Bitcoins protocol helps to bring a level of security in uncertain times. And understanding Bitcoin requires studying different disciplines, which really creates a strong community and a common goal. I think there’s challenging times ahead for humanity, and if one asset can go trough this storm then i think it’s Bitcoin. If Bitcoin fails to deliver short- and long term goals, then idk what could’ve in this environment, and atleast we tried.
For sure, it is really difficult to figure out how to invest these days, and sure anyone who might have already accumulated decent wealth might end up presuming that they can take chances that their existing investment portfolio will hold value through their remaining years.. if they expect to get 5-10 years out of it or maybe the uncertainty of longevity approaching 30 years - even people in their 60s tend to want to consider that they might live into their 90s - even though they might not end up having more than 10 years of life left in them.. but even being able to enjoy wealth can become difficult for folks who are aging into their 60s and beyond - some folks are more lucky than others, but even young folks sometimes will consider that they might be able to have more energy (and physical fitness into their elder years than ends up being the case), and I would not even suggest not having that kind of hope and having somewhat of a retirement nestegg just in case there might end up being an ability to enjoy and draw upon it into the 90s.
I have invested since I first entered into young adult life, and of course, the kinds of investments that were available for me, were different than what is currently available, but still similar trade-offs are still going to exist in terms of how far into the future that any of us strive to consider our investment, so when we are younger, we tend to be more preoccupied with wanting to get a quick pay off, and surely some of those kinds of inclinations can still carry into our practices as we get older, if we have not learned how to get them under control. So many younger folks get fucked because they get impatient with their desires to get rich quick and to see a quick payoff, and even if 4-10 years might seem as if it is too far into the future, it should be a timeline that any age investor should be able to attempt to build bitcoin into their investment timeline in order that they can at least shoot for initially investing with that kind of a timeline in mind, and even if they can assess their investment along the way, it may well become way more meaningful to defer any kinds of serious reassessment until sometime within the 4-10 year window in order to figure out how well their wealth has grown (or not) in terms of accumulating BTC during that time period.
Of course, each of us has discretion to manage our investment portfolio however we like, and so if we might end up focusing on ways to accumulate BTC in the first 4-10 years of our investment, then we are likely to be in a better position to engage in better assessment once we have given our BTC holdings time to accumulate and potentially compound upon itself.
For sure, not everyone is in the same boat, and there will be some folks who are already older, so they might be able to be more aggressive in their allocation of value into BTC, and there are going to also be folks who might not be able to have 4-10 years as an investment timeline because they are already getting elderly and are worried about locking up too much of their value into something like BTC. For the folks with a potentially shorter timeline, the answer should NOT be NOT to invest as Snowshow seems to want to argue, but instead to perhaps tailor the investment amount to a smaller allocation, so if a younger or middle aged person might be able to reasonably figure out an allocation into BTC that is anywhere between 1% and 25%, the person with the shorter timeline may well want to consider an allocation into BTC that is towards the lower part of the range - something like 1% to 5% and of course tailored to personal circumstances.
Younger folks and those ones with hardly any resources (maybe from a developed country and might not even be able to allocate $10 per week) may well just have to figure out their own circumstance in terms of trying to figure out how much is reasonable for them to invest into BTC, and surely if they continue to invest into BTC with even low amounts of value, there might be ways that through the years - even perhaps shorter than a 4-10 year time horizon, they will be able to increase their allocation into BTC based on being able to either increase their income or to cut some of their expenses.
So, even though in my last post I was suggesting that there could be longer term considerations (that go out 30 years or more concerning where bitcoin might be at that time) that bitcoin is likely to absorb more and more of the monetized assets in the world because it remains the best of sound monies/assets, but it also has the better of the monetary qualities that were already mentioned regarding verifiability, portability, divisibility, ability to individually hold and other aspects. Individuals are still likely going to be attempting to invest on shorter timelines that are hopefully at least 4-10 years or more while at the same time having an ability to appreciate where BTC as a competitive asset is going and is likely to continue to go - absent some kind of crazy-ass outrageous event.. like the world blowing up.. and then we are all fucked anyhow, so why get all worked up about some kind of an event like that.. we need to attempt to prepare for more likely scenarios rather than world blowing up scenarios that would end up causing us not to prepare at all.