I think ETH with a target of $8k is the most viable to hit in a next bull cycle ahead. While the potential for a consolidation may not increase rapidly during a bear market, ETH will remain a major factor for the pumps as market requirements permit.
The merge - may not bring much attraction and heat at the moment but it is an incentive to accumulate more.
You are right, that you are predicting a realistic ETH price for the possibility of reaching the next bull cycle, out there is a lot of speculation that the ETH price will be high above $10k but it will not be easy to reach if the bitcoin price has not reached ATH it must be 2x higher than before.