The latest drop to 25K was due to terra's dumping 80K bitcoins at once. This is not something that can be described as a market regularity. Technically, it is not a black swan event, but in practice it can be attributed to it due to its uniqueness.

Regarding the discussed 85% drop: it would take us around 10K, while 20K would be a 71% drop. I believe that such a crash to 20K, which from the current levels is more than 33%, would only happen briefly in a black swan event. For example, panic around the world, if God forbid the antichrist putler decides to use nuclear weapons. Or some other stable coin collapses and has to sell tens of thousands of bitcoins.

And here I will say something that I noticed some time ago in connection with the first crash to $3100 at the end of 2018. For a long time we all thought it was caused by the panic with the appearance of bsv and fake tweets that cw will dump 1 mil. bitcoins on the market and will bring down the price to $1000. There were quite a few peeps believing his lies. But then I noticed something very strange. A few days before the big crash, the tether company burned billions of tethers.

Recall that at that time, they were trying to convince the US authorities that the tether was "almost" 100% backet up with fiat. You see, not only with usd, but also with real estate and bitcoins (terra, cough, cough). These bitcoins were bought by the tether company in 2017 at a price between $1000 and $3000 with the clear intention that they will rely on bitcoin to make a profit one day. Once it became clear that this was the case, despite the tether's denial, in order to cover their tracks, they had to burn the tethers urgently and get rid of the bitcoins. Again, you can look at the statistics in glassnode to come to this conclusion, but there is no way to prove 100% that this really happened. If so, however, this was again a black swan event, not a market regularity. This was confirmed by the fact that only a few months later, the price already approached 14K.

In light of all this, if bitcoin is moving within its current limits for a long time, it is very likely that there will be another black swan event that will break the bottom of 30K. But whether it will stay long enough below 25K for everyone to buy with larger investments, cannot be guaranteed. So it is better to buy regularly DCA style.