~snip~
Never write off any of the CONMEBOL teams. Even the weakest teams in that confederation, such as Bolivia and Venezuela are capable of defeating the strongest teams in CAF and AFC. Now I regard Australia as one of the strongest teams in AFC, but still I would go for Peru if they face each other. Anyway, we need to wait one more week to find out which team is going to qualify for Qatar 2022. Also, there is one more playoff scheduled for next week (CONCACAF v OFC), in which Costa Rica will take on New Zealand.
Absolutely right, CONMEBOL should have at least one extra slot in my view, 4.5 is just too few as basically all the teams there are good enough to qualify, and two of them are always qualifying: Brazil, and Argentina, which are both still undefeated. This basically reduces the slots for the rest of the teams and makes it extremely competitive.
Costa Rica vs New Zealand will be an interesting match, the all whites should be able to win there.
So, overall, my guess is that Oceania (Australia, New Zealand) will go to the world cup.