Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Merits 14 from 4 users
Re: Bitstamp BTC/USD Polar Charts | 28/11/2014 ~ 07/06/2022 (2749 days)
by
JayJuanGee
on 10/06/2022, 06:46:21 UTC
⭐ Merited by El duderino_ (7) ,fillippone (3) ,AlcoHoDL (3) ,danadc (1)
RELATIONSHIP WITH WEEKLY MOVING AVERAGE INDICATORS
Although it is tempting to equate the above analysis/visualization with the familiar x-WMA indicators (particularly, the 208-, 104- and 52-WMA), it should be stressed that there is absolutely no averaging whatsoever taking place in the above polar plots. What is actually happening is an angular compression of the huge 7.5-year-long spiral, but without averaging any part of the data. In other words, if there was even a single one-day-wide spike in the spiral trajectory, it would clearly show up in the graphs with a line thick enough to fill several pixels (MATLAB has an extremely precise visualization engine that correctly handles such cases). I have, nonetheless, verified this, by deliberately adding a single one-sample outlier to the data, and it appeared very clearly and as expected (see here for proof). To recap: we are talking about daily high/low prices here, not averages which could filter/smooth out fast-changing elements in the data set. Having said that, the observed similarity between the above polar plots and the corresponding x-WMA charts is interesting, and, IMHO, strengthens the validity of both.

Those are some very interesting visuals that you put together AlcoHoDL - to spin information in such a way that largely reinforces information that we feel that we already know but surely provides some possible ways to view the information and to gain some new perspectives about what we are seeing - including that some of us might not realized certain aspects of the information until we see it presented/spun that way.

To some extent I see some advantages for you to have started the data in late 2014 as you did - and maybe some of the data would have been a bit more confusing in 2013/2014 - but really it seems that Bitstamp has market information going back to about October 2011 - even though surely several times I have argued that it may not really be very representative to attempt to make financial proclamation before 2012-ish.. but still some market dynamics were already coming into existence in those earlier days/years in bitcoinlandia.

For sure, we can find a lot of values in measuring BTC spot price, especially if we are trying to consider what our various onloading into BTC costs might have been and the various points in which we may have wanted to unload some or all of our bitcoins and potentially be in profits along the way. 

Many of us have grown to appreciate that so far in BTC price history,. BTC has not had any periods of greater than 3.5 years-ish in which any purchases would have been at a loss and we can easily see that by looking at any BTC price peak and then going 3.5 years after that to see that the BTC price is at least at the level of the peak price or higher. 

At the same time, even without really knowing the particulars of normie BTC hodlrs/accumulators, it just seems so much more prudent to have more than just a mere cycle (4 years) under the belt before (generally speaking) any normie HODLer/accumulator should be getting into the employment of serious BTC liquidation strategies... of course, there is going to be variance in terms of the level of aggressiveness and/or level of overaccumulation reached that each normie BTC HODLer/accumulator needs to assess for himself/herself... and surely there can be individualistic comfort levels of just knowing it when you see it.. but at the same time, there should be some cautions regarding cashing out way too much BTC too soon.. which is another error that normies tend to make - besides the even more common error of failing/refusing to get started in BTC accumulation in the first place.

For sure various kinds of moving averages may well come in quite handy too.. especially for longer term term BTC HODLers - but also perhaps for guys (and gal) attempting to time larger BTC price swing trends in terms of figuring out some aspects of BTC portfolio management... whether still in BTC accumulation mode or maintenance or liquidation mode... for sure we can find some values in the linger terms ones such as 104 weeks (2 years) or 208 weeks  (4 years)., and so many times many of us will be kind of winging it, too, when it comes to making determinations regarding if we want to engage in higher levels of accumulation or liquidation ..   Oh by the way, I would imagine that that some of those longer moving averages would be quite boring in terms of even showing much if any overlap in cycles... so the shorter moving averages of 52 and less will have way more overlapping periods.