Post
Topic
Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: What is the future of bitcoin? Commodity, currency or smth else?
by
franky1
on 10/06/2022, 14:23:03 UTC
no one ever said the backed value is fixed forever..
even backed value changes

just like fiats backed by pretty much laws about taxes and wages, meaning backed by minimum wage value, which too is not fixed forever..

even in gold there is a variable bottom too..
the main cost for golds bottom is diesel. aswell as labour and that changes too..
the rise in diesel cost and the lack of labour during covid affected the bottomline.. for the cheapest region..

but that is a separate measure from the market price which speculated upto over double+ the bottomline

and in housing there is a variable bottom too..
the main cost for housing bottom material and labour. and that changes too..
but the housing real estate market price is not the same as the build price.
..
here is the thing..
bitcoins DAILY MARKET PRICE.. is volatile.. . the PRICE is not value. its not the thing that is backed.
its speculative.. highly speculative and highly variable..


below the price is a more stable VALUE that alters much more slowly. and is more stable. and its what people use as a base point value to then associate if the market price is near value or highly inflated bubble premium

if you do the math.. at the $0.04/kw and the hashrate now.. its about $29kish..
value is not TODAYS mining cost of ~$28k-$29k in cheapest regions
..
but here is the thing.. even with the hashrate variable and difficulty. the long term stable value for many months now has been around the same 200-210exahash.. for a long while now.
(5%) variance.
where by the even longer term value is below the $28k level.....
yep i said $25k.... not today or this quarters $28k+

i must emphasise this now..
i have coins for years.. i do not associate them to the daily whims of price changes and daily hashrate changes. i use more stable measure. a more stable base point that has existed LONG TERM..
i know you want to cry blue murder about daily and fortnightly variables. but you are thinking short term and only wanting to see short term charts..
look beyond your short term vision...


but there is a big difference between the volatile daily price speculation swing of $30k-$70k we have seen in the prices.. vs the value bottom of $20k-$25k bottom over the last couple years

whereby that smaller variable of $20k to $25k value has seen a more stable and consistent rise from $20k to $25k over the last few years. (give or take a few percent)

again.. for the last time
i am not quoting bitcoins TODAYS price/hashrate cost to be "value"
nor the mininig cost of japan($65k) as value
nor the mining cost of hobby miners on residential electric cost in america as value..

i am saying the ultimate bottom of $25k
do not confuse todays mining cost variable with what i have said. as you are just trying to be pedantic and not reading it when i said no one one the planet can mine for less than $25k

there are alot of things that need to go wrong to really push the underlying value down to $0