Take a look at this fractal:
It compares
the bubbles of Oct2011 + Jan2012 + April-May2012
vs
the bubbles of Jan-Mar2013 + Nov2013 + May-Sept2014?
The top of the next bubble would peak around 100,000 USD/XBT at around end of September 2014 (6 months from now).
It compares
the bubbles of Oct2011 + Jan2012 + April-May2012
vs
the bubbles of Jan-Mar2013 + Nov2013 + May-Sept2014?
The top of the next bubble would peak around 100,000 USD/XBT at around end of September 2014 (6 months from now).
You see the size of the second staircase step is smaller than the first, then you make an arbitrary curve fit which makes the 3rd staircase step larger than both. That defies objective reason and rationality.
The image (BiscoinWisdom: MtGox 3 days log chart (background and faded, timescale on top) vs Bitstamp 3 days log chart (front, timescale at the bottom), merged with a simple photoshop resize) simply shows that the shape of the two 2013 bubbles is quite the same than the two pre-bubbles of 2010 that ended in the superbubble of Jun 2011.
So the possibility of a new superbubble in 2014 exists.
I don't know the probability (nobody, in fact), but the possibility exists.
The image also shows that the bottom of Nov2013 bubble correction, if not 430, could be somewhere in the 300s. That would be the start of 2014 superbubble.
Edited: dates corrected (prebubbles were in 2010, not in 2011, and superbubble was in 2011, not in 2012)