Truly the market can really be confusing whether you're paying attention to what is being said by people or to what you believe is correct and profitable for you. Having a perfect reliable signal is never easy and it's hard to sometimes stick to a particular one because others would also come up with more enticing signals that can make you lose focus in the one that you've been using. Again, the very day the signal you concluded to refer to as "reliable" suddenly fails you once or twice you'd start looking for better ones which might even be worse than your previous one. So in every market there would always be risks as well as trial and error that might be favorable for a while but disappointing sometimes