Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
I don’t disagree with you about that, either. You do understand that when I just went through five months of hell and destroyed my own assets with foolishness that I had previously warned others against, I am urgently, passionately warning those who don’t know better—which I did, which makes it worse for me. 
Even after my recent experiences, I may try margin again someday. For example, if I were to devote serious time and effort to studying mathematical finance (I’ve been dabbling with it lately, on a “beginner dipping a toe in” level), become a Real Quant(TM), and create a thoroughly backtested algorithmic HFT bot based on a rigoroous probability model, then—well, then, at that point I would know if and how that bot should use leverage!
Until then, I will stay the hell away from margin. And I don’t need it. I can write other bots, that do more basic stuff without risks... I’m working on that; it was my plan to save my bitcoins from debt that I otherwise had no way to repay.
I will advise others accordingly.
It’s an interesting thought and something worth looking into.Even after my recent experiences, I may try margin again someday. For example, if I were to devote serious time and effort to studying mathematical finance (I’ve been dabbling with it lately, on a “beginner dipping a toe in” level), become a Real Quant(TM), and create a thoroughly backtested algorithmic HFT bot based on a rigoroous probability model, then—well, then, at that point I would know if and how that bot should use leverage!
Until then, I will stay the hell away from margin. And I don’t need it. I can write other bots, that do more basic stuff without risks... I’m working on that; it was my plan to save my bitcoins from debt that I otherwise had no way to repay.
I will advise others accordingly.
But what i think speaks against bots ever reaching a level to survive such volatile markets consistently, even if based on the best mathematical finance, are two factors:
1. The market is basically infinitely complex, there will never be a point where every possible influencing factor can be modelled into a bot correctly, it’s a catching up game that never ends.
2. Markets are ruled by irrationally, a bot would need to understand emotion, deception, manipulation, politics and other factors.
Although nothing is impossible, i think it’s more efficient to just stick to fundamentals and keep it simple. The market is too much human influenced to be predicted by mathematics. Simple dca and spending time to accumulate more fiat trough businesses or well paying jobs will probably beat trying to time the market, in most cases.