Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
Wow, that dog’s breakfast is possibly the worst-written nontrivial post that I have ever made. Disorganized, rambling, with some disjointed parts where I went back and wrote a different logical point at length in the middle of a point. Some things are confusing or missing, though it’s none of anyone’s business how my assets are structured, etc.; I spilled my guts too much as it is, and the relevant points are correctly described.
It is devolving into the antithesis of classic I AM HODLING. I am not drunk, but bone-tired—physically exhausted, and also soul-weary—recovering from shock. Please imagine how well you would take it, if you were suddenly, forcibly reduced to less than 0.05 BTC.
Post 3 / 2, because I am so worn out that I forgot how to count. Zing!
The good news: After I wrote that but before I posted it, I found some dollars (stablecoin) that I had forgotten about. Right under my nose—not even misplaced in my labyrinth of various wallets. Forgetting about dollars, when I am desperate for that... I am that worn down, worn out. Maybe these dollars could have tipped the balance to help me avoid one of my recent liquidations, where the bot beat me by a hair.
Now, it worked out so that I could decrease my leverage while buying an itty-bit more bitcoin dust. No, I should not be buying at all until the debt is gone! But it is the first time that I have ever managed to buy BTC below 200 WMA, so I sort of did it on principle. Now, I can brag that I have bought BTC below 200 WMA! (Unfortunately, two orders of magnitude less BTC than I lost below 200 WMA—never mind my total BTC losses.)
Anyway, it has all become a farce.
I bought a little bit over a millibitcoin at $21,589 a few hours ago. On margin. But with much less impact on my % leverage than the HUGE amount of dollars I had just poured in.
Finding that loose change helped so much: $48.82 is now a lot of money to me.
My finances have become dollhouse-sized.
Image: A dollhouse handmade by someone’s grandfather (Dave Parker, 2007). Surely a mansion, compared to what my scaled-down finances can afford.
A few months ago, as I nurtured my growing BTC long-term savings and a zoo of alts, I was throwing around $10k and $40k chunks of stablecoins.
Even after I got trapped in debt, when the market was up, I was doing up to $200k leveraged CFD-style maker trades on the USDT/USDC pair to help keep up with interest on my debt. It is the one and only thing I tried with margin that did not wreck me. Low-risk, low-reward: I usually cleared about a 2 bps profit. When BTC rose, and I had more margin available, I could not afford to risk removing BTC collateral from the account; but I could leverage it for this. Then, if BTC suddenly started crashing (as happened a few times while I was doing this), I could quickly unwind the leveraged stablecoin position with a lesser 1 bps profit, or at worst a 1 bps loss. Besides BTC flash-crash which I risked anyway, my only nontrivial risk was a black swan depeg (like USDT briefly down to $0.85 a few years ago, or very briefly down to $0.95 last month), which could get me liquidated even if the de-pegged coin promptly re-pegged as USDT always has. Oh, the joys of margin trading!
I am now the proud owner of 0.0495 BTC plus a handful of sats, with a liquidation price a little bit under $19.2k. If Bitcoin somehow breaks below $20k, the whole account is so small that I can hold a dollhouse yard sale of miniaturized alt-dust to raise $50; another $50 infusion would push my liquidation price down by >$1,100. Eventually, I will get around to freeing my itty-bitty dollhouse bitcoins from the encumbering debt of around $853. Meanwhile, I can hold a dollhouse tea party.
$48.82 is now a lot of money to me. Finding that loose change helped so much.
It is devolving into the antithesis of classic I AM HODLING. I am not drunk, but bone-tired—physically exhausted, and also soul-weary—recovering from shock. Please imagine how well you would take it, if you were suddenly, forcibly reduced to less than 0.05 BTC.
Post 3 / 2, because I am so worn out that I forgot how to count. Zing!
Post 1/2... [...]
Even his nickname shows the devastating effect of the leverage trading on the human mind.
[...] Well, now I only need to come up with about $877 to free my remaining itty-bitty bitcoin dust. Whoopee. I may dip into the emergency reserve, which I promised myself I would not touch for this. Thinking it over now. I am in a state of shock, not good for making financial decisions (with inaction also being a decision). [Edit before posting: I wrote this earlier, then realized I should take care of some business... Slightly different situation now.] [...]
If newbies see the pain and anguish
Even his nickname shows the devastating effect of the leverage trading on the human mind.
[...] Well, now I only need to come up with about $877 to free my remaining itty-bitty bitcoin dust. Whoopee. I may dip into the emergency reserve, which I promised myself I would not touch for this. Thinking it over now. I am in a state of shock, not good for making financial decisions (with inaction also being a decision). [Edit before posting: I wrote this earlier, then realized I should take care of some business... Slightly different situation now.] [...]
The good news: After I wrote that but before I posted it, I found some dollars (stablecoin) that I had forgotten about. Right under my nose—not even misplaced in my labyrinth of various wallets. Forgetting about dollars, when I am desperate for that... I am that worn down, worn out. Maybe these dollars could have tipped the balance to help me avoid one of my recent liquidations, where the bot beat me by a hair.
Now, it worked out so that I could decrease my leverage while buying an itty-bit more bitcoin dust. No, I should not be buying at all until the debt is gone! But it is the first time that I have ever managed to buy BTC below 200 WMA, so I sort of did it on principle. Now, I can brag that I have bought BTC below 200 WMA! (Unfortunately, two orders of magnitude less BTC than I lost below 200 WMA—never mind my total BTC losses.)
Anyway, it has all become a farce.
I bought a little bit over a millibitcoin at $21,589 a few hours ago. On margin. But with much less impact on my % leverage than the HUGE amount of dollars I had just poured in.
Finding that loose change helped so much: $48.82 is now a lot of money to me.
My finances have become dollhouse-sized.
Image: A dollhouse handmade by someone’s grandfather (Dave Parker, 2007). Surely a mansion, compared to what my scaled-down finances can afford.
A few months ago, as I nurtured my growing BTC long-term savings and a zoo of alts, I was throwing around $10k and $40k chunks of stablecoins.
Even after I got trapped in debt, when the market was up, I was doing up to $200k leveraged CFD-style maker trades on the USDT/USDC pair to help keep up with interest on my debt. It is the one and only thing I tried with margin that did not wreck me. Low-risk, low-reward: I usually cleared about a 2 bps profit. When BTC rose, and I had more margin available, I could not afford to risk removing BTC collateral from the account; but I could leverage it for this. Then, if BTC suddenly started crashing (as happened a few times while I was doing this), I could quickly unwind the leveraged stablecoin position with a lesser 1 bps profit, or at worst a 1 bps loss. Besides BTC flash-crash which I risked anyway, my only nontrivial risk was a black swan depeg (like USDT briefly down to $0.85 a few years ago, or very briefly down to $0.95 last month), which could get me liquidated even if the de-pegged coin promptly re-pegged as USDT always has. Oh, the joys of margin trading!
I am now the proud owner of 0.0495 BTC plus a handful of sats, with a liquidation price a little bit under $19.2k. If Bitcoin somehow breaks below $20k, the whole account is so small that I can hold a dollhouse yard sale of miniaturized alt-dust to raise $50; another $50 infusion would push my liquidation price down by >$1,100. Eventually, I will get around to freeing my itty-bitty dollhouse bitcoins from the encumbering debt of around $853. Meanwhile, I can hold a dollhouse tea party.
$48.82 is now a lot of money to me. Finding that loose change helped so much.