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Board Speculation
Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)
by
Carlton Banks
on 02/04/2014, 16:46:25 UTC
Take a look at this fractal:



How could your scenario play out?  According to the Metcalfe model, a 100X growth in price would correspond with a 10X growth in adoption levels (from roughly 0.1-0.2% to 1-2%).  Could adoption grow this quickly?  

Many financial surveys point out that only 2 - 5% of people would be willing to buy bitcoins, suggesting that there is already more than 10X additional demand.  But then why aren't they buying?

So many people claim they would never risk "putting their money into it", and yet the market for gambling and lottery tickets is perhaps more healthy than ever. People actually experiencing those they know personally "getting lucky" or "winning big" on bitcoin will draw in this gambling crowd via catharsis. And that's bigger than 2-5% of a population. Maybe they'll have more propensity to realise the "winnings" as cash, but that will likely just smooth out price volatility.

All it takes is making bitcoin available in small change amounts with coverage somewhere approaching that of lottery ticket vendors. And as you're pointing out Peter, that's on it's way.