I'm guessing this is what you're referencing?


I think the end of the week in a few days will provide more clarity, even if price is already above $25K by then, there would likely still be a re-test of the 200WMA next week. Likewise if price closes below $20K then we could certainly see a covid-like capitulation down to $16K, $14K, even $12K if panic really sets in. Despite how oversold price is, this only suggests a sharp rebound, not that price can't go lower temporarily prior to this. As long as price hold $20K this week, even if only by going sideways, I think some market manipulating whales will take advantage of pumping the price late Sunday evening prior to the Weekly close. In order to confirm the 200WMA as support. This would give considerable confidence to those who have been waiting on the sidelines, waiting to see if the 200WMA holds before jumping in.

That said, it's worth listening to people who got it right in 2018/2019 or previous bear markets. Especially if they haven't already made a handful of calls that the bottom is in already. I'm inclined to believe the bottom is in, more so than previously at $25K, and a "mini-bull" will commence, up to $50K then correct back down to $25K/$30K for a "mini-bear". However I was also bullish around $50K (rising 50 Week MA) late last year in the bull market. Then again at $33K when the bullish structure was maintained temporarily and price rebounded to $48K. I only really lost my bullish bias when $30K was broken, and therefore the bullish macro structure was broken, which is obviously way too late for any worthwhile selling opportunity (at least imo). But eventually, the macro market should become more predictable again imo.

I realise that a lot of other investors are probably the same however, those who invested at 4 figures in order to take profits at 6 figures, anticipating a blow off top and the usual 80%+ correction that never occurred. This is why while I believe there will be a strong rebound, with many recent sellers re-entering (as well as some newbies who realise Bitcoin isn't dead after all), followed by significant selling pressure in the $40K to $50K zone, from people like myself who failed to take enough profits, or others who entered the market in the past 18 months. Speculating that price come back down to some $25K to $30K level again before really taking off to the upside. Textbook short-term re-distribution effectively, while also acting as also long-term re-accumulation (as $40K has been roughly year already).

I could well be wrong (again), as the market has become much less predictable than previous years, and certainly I'd wait to see what price movement is like when returning to distribution zones, and how quickly it get's there more importantly, but my gut feeling is a repeat of 2019 with altcoins going sideways/lower against USD and therefore getting rekt against BTC (by another 50%+). That said, I also anticipated altcoin wreckage since May 2021 and it still hasn't really happened yet. Many shitcoins have corrected against BTC, but there still hasn't been a "Bitcoin season" since 2019. This has become considerably overdue now.