It's impossible to say who will win the 2022 World Cup Qatar, but history shows that the CONMEBOL confederation has won on the Asian continent. The weather aspect will play a huge role, and the scorching temperatures in Qatar, in particular, will be difficult for European players to adjust to. When Brazil beat Germany 2-0 in the 2002 World Cup Final at the Yokohama International Stadium in Japan, it showed that the CONMEBOL Confederation's team was more tolerant of the Asian continent's weather, despite the fact that the UEFA Confederation's team had won the World Cup 12 times while CONMEBOL had only won 9 times.
You are right that the weather factor can have an effect on the qualifying team. But in general Qatar is a hot region and will make it difficult for teams from Europe and will give a little advantage to teams from South America and Africa, but the weather forecast for the 2022 FIFA world cup in Qatar will take place in winter.
Try looking for more information regarding the weather forecast in Qatar during the world cup.